I will own this if I’m wrong but I just can’t imagine people are really going to split their ticket between Trump and a Dem senator. I think they may have really low enthusiasm for Biden, but I believe he’s going to win.
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@Mastertj99999Republican2yrs2Y
You gotta realize if 2 out of every 100 voters split their ticket that is 4% of the vote. The question isn't if Biden will win or not, but rather can he reach 220 electoral votes? At this point it is trending towards Washington and New York even being in play, Biden realistically could not hit 200. The democrat party is fractured and discussing doing the most undemocratic thing and replace an already democratically elected democratic nominee with someone of their choosing due to fears he will lose due to his age. Biden was already not faring the best due to his poor handling of foreign affairs and the economy, and now between the debate performance and the assassination attempt it is looking very very bleak for Biden.
History shows — unequivocally — that you have it 100% backwards. You’re right that this many people won’t split their ticket, but it moves the other way. Senators don’t carry underwater presidents, they get sunk by them. That’s why there’s a freakout happening downballot.
@ThirdPartyTimDemocrat2yrs2Y
It’s about the enthusiasm gap and low turnout of sporadic voters, not ticket splitting. The top of the ticket drives turnout and it’s weak, turnout dips … hard. Fear of Trump will help, but it’s risky to rely on it. Pollsters model turnout based on past elections, not future.
@ThirdPartyPandaGreen2yrs2Y
Some % will split their ticket, some will vote R down ballot, some just won't vote for lack of enthusiasm, and some will switch to Biden. Not exactly reassuring.
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