Spot on

One man in Mar-a-Lago—who doesn't care one bit about either Israelis or Palestinians but only about himself—will urge and likely even pressure Bibi not to allow any kind of breakthrough until (checks watch) after the first week of November or so. Kind of like Reagan secretly urging Iran not to release hostages when that might help Jimmy Carter.

But Trump is a less subtle and effective operator than Reagan. So I kind of suspect the endgame will be: Bibi says "no" on these deals for his own narrow self-interested reasons, regardless of Trump.