Births in China fell by more than 500,000 last year, according to recent government data, accelerating a population drop that started in 2022. Officials cited a quickly shrinking number of women of childbearing age—more than three million fewer than a year earlier—and acknowledged “changes in people’s thinking about births, postponement of marriage and childbirth.”
Some researchers argue the government underestimates the problem, and the population began to shrink even earlier.
“Our forecasts for 2022 and 2023 were already low but the real situation has turned out to be worse,” said Xiujian Peng, a senior research fellow at Victoria University who leads the population research in Melbourne.
China’s fertility rate is approaching one birth for every woman, less than half the 2.1 replacement rate that keeps a population stable. In the late 1970s, the fertility rate hovered around 3.
“All of China’s population policies for decades have been based on erroneous projections,” Yi said. “China’s demographic crisis is beyond the imagination of Chinese officials and the international community.”
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But climate models, which have always been wrong, are totally credible.
@Equ4lRightsStanGreen2yrs2Y
Modeling the physical world is not analogous to modeling human behavior. The best test of a scientific theory is whether is accurate at prediction. So far, most climate modeling, like weather modeling, has been fairly accurate.
For those incapable, here's the fallacy in this remark. One model on a specific statistic (human population) from 50 years ago was inaccurate. Therefore, all models are inaccurate. Logic is free for the taking.
"Bright minds" playing with numbers can get many wrong results but they are mesmerized by all the numbers. Government control freaks love the answers even if they are not smart enough to ask the right questions.
@Ind3pend3ntCordialGreen2yrs2Y
This is dire for China's future. There are quite simply no longer enough women of childbearing potential to stop a precipitous drop in population. This is something never seen before in any major population anywhere in history. Buckle up.
Something left out is the reality of there being too few women for the number of men interested in marriage life. The women who are available will more likely marry the older man with a house, car, etc. Many of the young men who haven't yet achieved such things will be left out. A population of angry young men will find their outlet one way or the other. This cannot be good.
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