U.S. bans election betting

The U.S. government has embarked on a broad crackdown against election betting, relying on a mix of newly proposed rules and ongoing court cases to try to stamp out a nascent industry that critics call a potential threat to democracy.

To Democrats, these wagers on the outcome of a particular campaign invite more money into an electoral system that’s already rife with it.

But the staunchest backers of political prediction marketplaces insist that the fears of election interference are overstated — and that the insights gleaned from their data serve a greater purpose.

“To me, it is enormous corruption,” said Sen.

Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), who expressed fear that well-heeled political or corporate interests could someday come to think, “Hey, I will spend millions of dollars smearing some candidate to make sure the candidate I bet on wins.”

To academics, political prediction data can sometimes prove more accurate than polling, since traders who bet tiny sums on the election are more likely to be more educated about a topic once they have money on the line.