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 @ISIDEWITHNewspoliticsFinancetechnologyprediction marketsgambling•••2mos ago

Prediction Markets Go Mainstream: Betting on Politics and the Future

Prediction markets, where participants bet on the outcomes of real-world events like elections or policy changes, are gaining significant traction in 2024. Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have seen a surge in popularity and funding, especially after regulatory shifts allowed for more political betting. These markets are being touted as innovative tools that can provide unique insights into future events, potentially outperforming traditional analysis. However, there is ongoing debate about whether prediction markets are a smart investment strategy or simply another form of gambling. The rise of decentralized platforms is also fueling new business models and opportunities in this rapidly evolving space.

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 @BoldBl4ckBallotLibertarianfrom Virginia  commented…2mos2MO

Let people put their money where their mouth is—markets always do a better job predicting outcomes than government-approved "experts" ever could.

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 @ISIDEWITH submitted…1yr1Y

Biden retaliated against a Dem who called for him to step aside

Rep. Hillary Scholten, a first-term Democrat who flipped a traditionally Republican seat in 2022, was booted last week from from a coordinated effort between the the Biden campaign and the state party to elect candidates up and down the ticket, according to four people with knowledge of the situation, who were granted anonymity to speak candidly about private discussions.It happened soon after she called for Biden to step aside, those people said, which angered many Democrats behind the scenes. The Biden campaign was contacted by POLITICO Wednesday evening; Scholten was reinstated Thursday morning.“Rep. Scholten is welcome at the coordinated campaign and we look forward to campaigning with her this fall,” said Mia Ehrenberg, a spokesperson for the Biden campaign, when asked about Scholten’s removal from the coordinated campaign.The initial decision to remove Scholten from the joint effort — which would have essentially cut her off from the combined field effort between the presidential, Senate and House races — came from the Michigan state party, according to two people familiar with the discussions. If she had remained excluded from the coordinated effort, it could’ve meant that when Democratic organizers were campaigning in her district, they would tout Biden and the party’s Senate nominee — but not Scholten.The Michigan Democratic Party declined to comment. But two people familiar with discussions said Scholten had specifically infuriated state leaders when she spoke out against Biden — on the same day that the president was already visiting Michigan — without informing them of her plans, according to the two people.“This decision was made in Wilmington, full stop,” a Democratic operative who’s worked on competitive House races said. “Punishing her isn’t just petty and vindictive, it’s self-defeating.”An official for the Biden campaign denied that: “This did not come from Wilmington.”

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 @ISIDEWITH submitted…11mos11MO

Trump’s Doom vs. Harris’s Hope as America Decides Its Fate

Donald J. Trump and Kamala Harris closed out their campaigns in the final hours before Election Day in starkly different moods: The former president, often appearing drained at arenas that were not filled, claimed that the country was on the brink of ruin, while the vice president promised a more united future as energized supporters chanted alongside her, “We’re not going back.”In stop after stop, the presidential rivals essentially offered up two competing versions of reality on Monday and into early Tuesday. Mr. Trump repeatedly raised the specter of unchecked immigration and the dangers of Democratic policies as he spoke to crowds in North Carolina and Pennsylvania before closing with a midnight rally in Michigan.With a comparatively more optimistic message, Ms. Harris crisscrossed Pennsylvania, which holds 19 electoral votes that could decide the race. Stopping in Scranton, Allentown and Pittsburgh before a nighttime rally in Philadelphia, Ms. Harris talked about bolstering the economy and restoring federal abortion rights. She asserted that Americans were “exhausted” and ready to move on from the politics of the past decade.About 30 miles to the southwest, Mr. Trump was in Reading, Pa., broadly portraying undocumented immigrants as mentally ill criminals and calling those accused of crimes “savages” and “animals.”Both leaned on Hispanic supporters as they tried to rally Latino voters. The pro-Harris rapper Fat Joe, who is Puerto Rican, practically shamed his fellow Latinos in Allentown as he asked, “Where’s your pride?” Mr. Trump, still facing fallout from his rally in New York at which a comedian called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage,” brought Roberto Clemente Jr., the son of the Puerto Rican baseball legend, to the stage at a rally in Pittsburgh.But Mr. Trump, reaching the end of a grueling marathon of a campaign that began in 2022, looked visibly weary, battling fatigue in front of listless crowds, though he was relatively more upbeat and energized in Michigan. Ms. Harris, still appearing fresh after a three-month sprint, appealed for unity and pressed the contrast to her rival without uttering his name.“The measure of a true leader is based not on who you beat down,” she said. “It is based on who you lift up.”Despite the sharply different tones, polls suggest the race remains tight, with the final New York Times/Siena College surveys showing the candidates tied or holding only narrow leads in all of the seven battleground states.

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