The first China shock came after a series of liberalizing reforms in China in the 1990s and its accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. For U.S. consumers, this brought considerable benefits. One 2019 paper found that consumer prices in the U.S. for goods fell 2% for every extra percentage point of market share grabbed by Chinese imports, with the biggest benefits felt by people on low and middle incomes.
But the China shock also piled pressure on domestic manufacturers. In 2016, Autor and other economists estimated that the U.S. lost more than two million jobs between 1999 and 2011 as a result of Chinese imports, as makers of furniture, toys and clothes buckled under the competition and workers in hollowed-out communities struggled to find new roles.
A sequel of sorts appears to be under way.
China’s economy expanded 5.2% last year, a subdued rate by its standards, and is expected to slow further as a drawn-out real-estate crunch crushes investment and consumers rein in spending. Capital Economics, a consulting firm, thinks annual growth will slow to around 2% by 2030. Beijing is seeking to engineer an economic turnaround by plowing money into factories, especially for semiconductors, aerospace, cars and renewable-energy equipment, and selling the resulting surplus abroad.
Protectionism might shift some of the deflationary impact to other parts of the world, as Chinese exporters look for new markets in poorer countries. Those economies could see their own fledgling industries shrivel in the teeth of Chinese competition, much as the U.S. did in an earlier era.
The West had dumb and dumber politicians since the fall of the Soviet Union. A chain of fools. They squandered the victory in the cold war and strengthened both Russia and China by massively buying cheap without setting political requirements. The Germans were high on cheap Russian gas and we were high on cheap Chinese plastic. Now they are ready to skin us. Could have anyone predicted this development? Any reasonably educated person with sufficient knowledge of communist ideology and communist history should have done it. Putin was a communist as well. We will be choosing in November between the bad and the worse. The Europeans are even worse.
@ThirdPartyWillowRepublican2mos2MO
Chinese exports have accelerated dramatically to US trade partners Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and Germany while the US has just as dramatically increased imports from these countries.
China’s mind-boggling heavy manufacturing output has increased by an astonishing 29.48% since 2019, according to Macrotrends. . China’s manufacturing economy has very substantial critical mass and is not slowing. Plus, their manufacturing engine is materially weighted towards war-fighting heavy industry. Environmental rules newly issued by the Biden Administration will collectively counteract Biden government subsidies and Trump tariffs by about five times.
@UnanimousJackDemocrat2mos2MO
They don’t have a strong enough economy to “skin us”. The whole reason they are exporting so much is because their domestic consumption is so weak. They have been trying for decades to rely less on exports and boost their domestic consumption to no avail.
@CuriousGnuRepublican2mos2MO
Great American companies like Meta and Google etc are not allowed to do business in China but USA is supposed to allow Chinese cars that will potentially wipe out the car manufacturing ecosystem in the US? Need strong pro-American leadership to stand up against China and use the superpower status to benefit from trade.
@AmbitiousRadicalPatriot2mos2MO
It's one thing to buy a frisbee or shirt from China.
It's another to buy something that needs to last and have reliable technical support like a car, fridge or computer.
Over the past few years China has proven itself an unreliable (maybe even hostile) partner.
@SuperiorH0u5eLibertarian2mos2MO
With the Federal and some states and cities war on business, setting unrealistic salaries, unrealistic energy regulations, weakening the power grid, endless lawsuits, a climate of anti business, spearheaded by the Federal Government and deep blue states. With friends like these, who is concerned about the Chinese. We too often make the Chinese, or Mexico, or some other country, the problem. When as Pogo said, “ We have met the enemy and he is us”. Let’s clean our house first.
@LynxCharlotteGreen2mos2MO
Politicians love to say they are doing things to promote investment and job growth, but their actions seldom do much—in the private sector anyway. But what they CAN do is get out of the way. Reduce unnecessary taxes, restrictions, regulations, permits, paperwork etc. and watch how well the economy responds. But that tends to reduce the size of government relative to the private sector, and no one with a career in government wants that.
@BassHarperPatriot2mos2MO
The West needs a better-educated, motivated, disciplined and rewarded workforce, fewer woke "influencers," community organizers, addicted, fentanyl-suicide candidates and unhealthy tax slaves. China is laughing at our decaying empire.
@ISIDEWITH2mos2MO
@ISIDEWITH2mos2MO
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